![]() ![]() A 27% annual growth rate is OK, sure, but a consistent 27% growth rate is more than a little worrying for an alleged next big thing it’s a long, long way from “10xing in three years.” Many people also predicted that by the end of this decade Magic Leap would look like something other than an utter shambles. What did we get?: 3.7 million to 4.7 million to 6 million, 2017 through 2019, while Oculus keeps getting reorg’ed. But in fact…ĪR/VR: Way back in 2015 I spoke to a very well-known VC who confidently predicted a floor of 10 million devices per year well before the end of this decade. Each has had champions arguing it will, in fact, be That Big, and even people with more measured expectations have predicted growth will at least follow the trajectory of smartphones or the internet, albeit maybe to a lesser peak. Let’s compare each of the above, shall we? I don’t think it’s an unfair comparison. That’s what a major platform shift looks like. Here’s a list of smartphone sales since 2009: Android went from sub-1-million units to more than 80 million in just three years. Here’s a list of internet users over time: from 16 million in 1995 to 147 million in 1998. You may recall that the growth of PCs, the internet and smartphones did not ever look wobbly or faltering. (Yes, self-driving cars would be a platform, in that whole new sub-industries would erupt around them.) And yet, one can’t help but notice that every single one of those has fallen far short of optimistic predictions. AR/VR blockchains chatbots the Internet of Things drones self-driving cars. There has certainly been no shortage of nominees over the last few years. It seems inevitable that a fourth must be on the horizon. Over the last thirty-plus years we’ve lived through three massive, overlapping, world-changing technology platform shifts: computers, the internet and smartphones. It’s easy to see why it might seem that way. The question presupposes that something has to be next, that this is a law of nature. Today, smartphones and their apps are a mature market, not a disruptive new platform. In 2009, Symbian was still the dominant “smartphone” OS, but 2010 saw the launch of the iPhone 4, the Samsung Galaxy S and the Nexus One, and today Android and iOS boast four billion combined active devices. ![]()
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